Who is Putin’s Successor and What Will Happen to Russia?

Founder of IStories, Roman Anin, assesses the chances of candidates to succeed the Russian dictator

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Date
4 Feb 2025
Who is Putin’s Successor and What Will Happen to Russia?
Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / AP / Scanpix / LETA

Before discussing who is the most likely successor to Vladimir Putin, we should ask a more fundamental question: does he even have a successor? The idea that Putin has no intention of leaving the presidency until his death is quite popular among some Russian and Western analysts of Russian politics. However, I find it difficult to agree with this for several reasons.

Firstly, Putin understands the structure of his regime better than anyone, in which power is divided among several powerful clans of his friends, KGB colleagues and judo sparring partners. Throughout his 25 years in power, these clans have constantly competed for influence, resources, and, most importantly, proximity to Putin himself, who has acted as an arbiter in their conflicts.

The biggest vulnerability of this system is its dependence on Putin’s life. If he were to die or even significantly weaken, the balance of power would collapse, leading to an inevitable war of all against all. The older he gets and the longer he postpones the question of power transition, the higher the risk that one of the clans will attempt to seize control before someone else does. I think Putin understands this perfectly well and does not want a repeat of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny.

Secondly, the scenario involving a successor seems the most likely, as it is a familiar and natural procedure of power transfer for Putin. He himself went through such a process in 1999 and undoubtedly considers it a successful experience.

Finally, in my opinion, Putin has already outgrown the presidential office. His propaganda, the church, his inner circle, and various other lackeys have spent years convincing him that he is not just a president but the father of the nation, tasked with a sacred mission to save Russia and restore its former greatness. And as a deeply narcissistic individual, he has willingly embraced this notion. “Putin has three advisors — Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, and Catherine the Great,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said about him at the start of the war.

Being a president is a job, but a father of the nation does not work. He hands down his will from his sacred pedestal, and his chosen executors implement it on the ground. The preparation for building this pedestal seemingly began in 2020, when Putin amended the Constitution to grant the State Council — previously a purely advisory body — constitutional status and the authority to define Russia’s key domestic and foreign policies. “Presumably, Putin intends to occupy this position himself — there is no other reason to create such an organ… He wants to depend on a successor, not on voters,” explained political strategist and former presidential speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov in an interview with BBC Russian.

Who could Putin choose as his successor?

First and foremost, it must be someone he absolutely trusts, someone who, upon receiving presidential powers, will not betray his benefactor.

Secondly, the successor must piously believe in the infallibility of his idol and unconditionally fulfill his will.

Thirdly, he should not belong to an old, influential clan, as this could trigger factional conflicts.

Fourthly, he must have significant achievements in Putin’s eyes, both personally and for Russia (as Putin perceives it).

Fifthly, the successor must embody the vision of Russia that Putin is shaping. Given that Russian children are now indoctrinated with the leader’s ideology from preschool — where “heroes of the special military operation” tell stories of how they defeated “Banderites” in Ukraine — it is clear that Putin’s future Russia is envisioned as a militarized dictatorship steeped in propaganda.

At present, there is only one person in Russia who meets all these criteria — Putin’s former bodyguard, Alexei Dyumin.

For many years, Dyumin never left Putin’s side — day or night. He guarded his rest in the taiga, ensured he didn’t drown in the ocean, carried out the most delicate assignments, and was ready to sacrifice his life for him. Putin trusts him completely.

Vladimir Putin meets with people in the town of Pikalyovo, in the Leningrad Oblast. To Putin’s right is Dyumin. June 2009
Vladimir Putin meets with people in the town of Pikalyovo, in the Leningrad Oblast. To Putin’s right is Dyumin. June 2009
Photo: Alexei Nikolsky / pool / Reuters
Tula Governor Dyumin at a hockey match with Putin in February 2019
Tula Governor Dyumin at a hockey match with Putin in February 2019
Photo: Sergey Chirkov / EPA / Scanpix / LETA

Moreover, Dyumin has major achievements in Putin’s eyes. In 2014, he led the Special Operations Forces (SOF), which played a key role in the occupation of Crimea. For this operation, as well as possibly for the evacuation of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, Dyumin was awarded the Hero of Russia title. He also, apparently, negotiated with Yevgeny Prigozhin during the Wagner Group’s mutiny, convincing him to turn his forces away from Moscow — effectively saving Putin and the state.

In May 2024, Putin appointed Dyumin as Secretary of the State Council, placing him in one of the highest-ranking positions within the Russian power structure.

November 2024. Dyumin is the Secretary of the State Council
November 2024. Dyumin is the Secretary of the State Council
Photo: Vyacheslav Prokofyev / pool / Reuters

According to two former FSB officers interviewed by IStories, many within the intelligence services see Dyumin as the leading candidate for succession. Not only is he loyal to Putin, but as a colonel-general, he aligns far more closely with the current and future vision of Russia than other potential successors.

Other names floated by political analysts include:

  • Sergey Kiriyenko – First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration.
  • Boris Kovalchuk – Chairman of the Accounts Chamber and son of Putin’s close associate, Yury Kovalchuk.
  • Dmitry Patrushev – Deputy Prime Minister and son of former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev.

However, in my opinion, none of these candidates should be seriously considered as successors.

  • Firstly, all of them currently lack Dyumin’s political weight and achievements in Putin’s eyes.
  • Secondly, Putin has clearly distanced himself from some of them. For instance, after the Wagner mutiny, Nikolai Patrushev was removed from his position as Security Council Secretary and given the rather humiliating role of Presidential Aide on Shipbuilding.
  • Thirdly, someone who starts wars does not hand over power to “kinder-surprises” or gilded youth.

Thus, in my view, in the near future — by historical standards — Russia is heading toward a kind of duumvirate: the father of the nation enthroned in his own grandeur and a young “hero-general” dutifully carrying out his will. Together, they will prepare the country for a new major war — because they have nothing else to offer the people.

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