“This is an ISIS Victory”

Islamists and Turkish proxies in Syria seized the capital Damascus, and President Bashar al-Assad resigned and fled the country. However, the civil war did not end there. 

The only serious opponent of the militants and pro-Turkish formations remained Rojava, the Autonomous Administration of Northern and Eastern Syria. The militants have already launched an offensive on its positions, and they managed to capture the city of Manbij. 

Rojava is a confederal autonomy established in 2016 based on the principles of anarchism and gender equality. It is located in northeastern Syria, a region mainly inhabited by Kurds, the largest ethnic group in the world without a state. They are the ones who form the backbone of the armed formations that operate on the side of the Autonomous Administration. Pro-Kurdish formations are also supported (with weapons and training) and financed by the United States. 

Kurds also live in Turkey, it is the largest national minority in the country. However, Ankara considers civilian Kurdish organizations as terrorist — in this way the state is trying to fight separatist sentiments among Kurds. This is also why Turkey actively sponsors Syrian groups against which the Kurds are fighting. 

About the future of Rojava in Syria, where militants have seized power, IStories talked to Liza Shishko (pseudonym) — a military journalist who is in Syrian Kurdistan and covers what is happening there in the Telegram channel Woman, Life Freedom. Shishko is Russian but has been living between Iraq, Syria and Lebanon for the past seven years. 

When asked what the fall of the Syrian government means to her personally, she replies: “I rejoice at the overthrow of the Assad regime and wish the same for Putin.” But she notes that the regime was overthrown not by the rebels, who express the aspirations of the entire Syrian people, but by splinters of ISIS, re-bought by Turkey. 

— How was the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad perceived in Rojava?

— People are celebrating throughout northeastern Syria, both in predominantly Kurdish cities and in Arab cities — Deir ez-Zor, for example. 

However, the most dangerous opponent for the pro-Kurdish militias has not been the Assad regime, but Turkish proxies. These include the Islamist group Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), both of which Turkey bought from Al-Qaeda. Turkey sponsors and supports both of these coalitions [they are the ones who seized power in the country]. 

The pro-Kurdish forces have always had problems with the Assad regime, but it did not have the resources to become a real threat to the Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF — pro-Kurdish military alliance]. In addition, the authorities realized that the pro-Kurdish militias were the most effective force against ISIS in the region. 

The HTS and the SNA, on the contrary, are linked to ISIS. Many HTS fighters were seen carrying ISIS symbols while attacking Aleppo, and many ex-ISIS fighters are now in their ranks. ISIS has been smuggling its contraband into northeastern Syria through regions occupied by Turkish proxies. In the past few times, the International Coalition [the military intervention by the US and its allies in Syria that began in 2014] has eliminated ISIS leaders in the territories controlled by the SNA. This is not an accident, they live there, they organize there. 

The victory of the HTS and the SNA is a victory for ISIS. I have personally talked to arrested ISIS fighters who are in prisons and camps in northeastern Syria and their families. They all dream of Rojava being occupied by the SNA and HTS. All this is very bad for the Kurds and other peoples of northeastern Syria. 

— Does Rojava have enough forces and resources to contain the militants’ offensive?

— The SNA and HTS are backed by Turkey, and Turkey has the second most powerful army in NATO. I do not think the SDF will be able to counter them on all fronts for long without closed airspace. Plus, the HTS has captured a huge amount of weapons and equipment. 

— Does the Kurdish administration have any diplomatic contacts with the militants who have seized power?

— There are always contacts. But the other thing is that we are not talking about diplomatic relations and cooperation yet. Both the HTS and the SNA fought with pro-Kurdish formations, occupied territories and expelled the Kurdish population with the help of Turkey [since 2016, Turkey and its proxies have been occupying some territories in northern Syria that were previously controlled by the Kurds - these are parts of Aleppo and Hasakah provinces. Human rights activists reported that due to the Turkish occupation, hundreds of thousands of local residents fled these areas, and those who remained were subjected to brutal repression]. 

The road to understanding is long, at least until the Kurdish refugees can safely return to their lands and until the regular shelling and drone strikes, which have only intensified in recent days, cease. 

Right now there are battles between pro-Kurdish formations and Turkish proxies for Manbij [at the time of the interview, Turkish proxies had already captured it]. They are accompanied by airstrikes and heavy weapons fire along the entire line of contact. So far, it is difficult to speak of any lasting peace. 

At the same time, the HTS mercenaries have concluded an agreement with a Kurdish neighborhood in Aleppo, but this is not a long-term solution. Most likely, this is a temporary concession, because now the HTS is trying to preserve the image of a polite and legitimate opposition, so that the world forgets that it is Al-Nusra Front [a splinter of Al-Qaeda]. 

— What will happen to the Kurdish population if the militants take control of Rojava?

— I think ethnic cleansing, massacres, and arrests. Approximately the same as in the territories previously occupied by pro-Turkish mercenaries, only on a larger scale. Not only the Kurds will suffer, but also the Assyrians, who are a significant force in the SDF, and many Arab tribes who fought shoulder to shoulder with the Kurds even before the International Coalition. 

No one in northeastern Syria is ready for the region to be ruled by the HTS or the SNA with their own orders. There is a system of co-chairmanship of women and men in all institutions and spheres in the region [there are two chairmen — a man and a woman — in all government bodies]. 

At the same time, married girls are not allowed to attend school in the territories controlled by the HTS. There are also Christians in northeastern Syria, and the HTS and SNA prohibit the ringing of bells in their territories. 

— Militants have seized territories controlled by the Assad regime in a matter of days. Because of this, there has been a flood of refugees into Rojava. Is there any estimate of their number?

— According to the UN, there is a risk that the number of internal refugees will grow to 1.5 million people. It was reported that since the beginning of the HTS offensive on Aleppo on November 27, more than 280 thousand people have already been forced to leave their homes and flee [according to the latest data, which the UN published on December 7, this number exceeded 370 thousand people]. The Autonomous Administration of Northeastern Syria expected about this number of refugees. But that was a week ago, when Homs and Damascus had not yet been captured. The number of refugees will definitely still grow. 

It is worth noting that residents of Syria are not free to leave the country. They can either flee or pay huge amount of money and risk their lives trying to swim across the Mediterranean Sea.

— From which regions do refugees mostly come from?

— From Shahba (in the south) and Tell Rifaat (in the northwest), refugees are coming to Al-Thawrah and Raqqa [cities controlled by the Autonomous Administration]. Now people are coming from Manbij. But at the moment there are no evacuations from Aleppo and other regions. Those who managed to leave fled in the first hours of the offensive. Many people I know from Aleppo are waiting for the road to northeastern Syria to open, but so far evacuation is impossible. 

The SDF reported 15,000 Shahba residents prevented from leaving the city by mercenaries. In 2018, people who lived in Afrin, a town in northern Syria previously controlled by Rojava, were forced to leave for Shahba. Since 2018, it has been occupied by Turkey and its proxies. So there were many Kurds left in Shahba who actively resisted the Turkish invaders all these years. Now they are under occupation and it is unknown what will happen to them. 

Many people stayed in the newly captured territories because they did not have time to gather quickly. There have been cases of people dying on the way from injuries or cold, including civilians, some of whom were children. As recently as 5 days ago, there was talk of more than 100,000 people entering northeastern Syria from Shahba and Tell Rifaat. Now that number is definitely higher. 

— What can the international community do to support Rojava?

— The region of northeastern Syria must be given official autonomous status. No one is now talking about creating a Kurdistan state, but the Kurds and other peoples of the region should have the right to choose their destiny within Syria. It is already a de facto autonomous region, and it should receive the appropriate status. The Autonomous Administration has all the resources and capabilities to govern. 

— Western media often cover what is happening through the prism of “the rebels defeated the dictator.” Does this affect international support for the Kurds?

— It affects the situation in Syria as a whole because it whitewashes and legitimizes the HTS group, which is the former Al-Nusra Front, the Al-Qaeda branch in Syria. ISIS, for example, also wanted to overthrow the regime — they were quite good at it, by the way. When people call the HTS “rebels” and “opposition,” they should understand that they are talking about an organization recognized as a terrorist organization worldwide. The HTS is not expressing the will of all Syrians, but only the representatives of radical Sunni Islam.